I am shocked this year, as I notice the increasing deaths of oaks along our Beccles Road. All were planted around the same time, presumably by Andrew Johnston when he changed the road, enlarging the Holton Hall Park. (Holton Hall was enhanced and developed by Andrew Johnston, agent for the Halesworth bank in 1853-62)
News arrives this month that El Nino has officially begun.
How El Nino will potentially effect us in the UK
2026 El Niño event. It is caused by weakening trade winds across the Pacific Ocean, disrupting oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns. El Niño usually develops in Northern Hemisphere summer, peaking around Christmas. However, by May 2026, Pacific sea surface temperatures were already suggesting a potentially record strength event with temperatures of 2°C above normal or more. The main driver of UK weather is the jet stream, which has low predictability beyond about two weeks, making long-range forecasting a challenge. Nevertheless, influences from around the globe can moderate it to an extent, leading to changes in the likelihood of seeing specific weather patterns. Research shows the main effect of El Niño on the UK occurs in winter and the surrounding months:
- November to December: increased probability of milder, wetter, windier conditions.
- January to March: increased probability of colder, drier, calmer weather.
- June to August: A small influence – if anything a shift towards more unsettled conditions.
It is important to note that these are shifts in probability and it is not possible to state with certainty that “El Niño means X for the UK”. Rather than predicting long-range impacts, the Met Office suggests its 3‑month Outlook for those looking for guidance on UK seasonal trends, as it incorporates El Niño alongside many other climate drivers. The 3-Month Outlook suggests that hot conditions are more than likely for the UK this summer, and the chances of wet and windy conditions are only slightly higher than usual. This provides an indicator of how the levels of weather-related risks for the season ahead compare to normal.
Kaliwood 